one of the holy grails for the oil patch: when vs. if

An interesting, if somewhat shallow (if you're in the business) analysis of oil prices and when (they say) oil will hit $100/barrel on RigZone this morning. I dunno...in my short career thus far - <9 years - I have seen il prices goes up, down, up, down, up, down, and the industry with it, so I am somewhat skittish about it all. Sure, perhaps they will hit $100 a year from now, but will they stay there? I even wonder about them staying where they are now without dropping significantly for some period of time...